http://www.morst.govt.nz/

Demographics
Populations are ageing in most developed countries, and longevity is likely to continue increasing as the scope and range of medical technologies expands. Simultaneously, global population is expected to continue increasing at about 1.6 percent per year, from 5.9 billion now to 10 billion by 2030. However, the distribution of this growth will be uneven, as birth rates are falling in the developed world. The coincidence of increasing longevity and declining birth rates in the developed world leads to the following implications for societies and economies:

• Actual retirement age is likely to increase in all developed countries.
• Economic growth can no longer come either from putting more people to work or from an increase in consumers' demands; it can only come from increasing productivity of knowledge.

Disparities in population growth, coupled with economic disparities, will contribute to steady migration of people from poorer and/or densely populated, to richer and/or resource rich countries. This migration will be encouraged to fill demand for increasing industrial productivity and challenged, particularly where employment and social benefits are limited. However, the positive and negative impacts of the flows and concentrations of immigrants on outcomes in health, education and employment, are not well understood.

Employment and skill development
The patterns of employment and skill development are changing. In the last 40 years we have seen a major shift towards more variety and change in the nature of employment and in employment patterns. Automation, globalisation, regional trade agreements, the shifting locus of low labour costs, increased productivity, the aging population, and the drive for corporate efficiency are causing changes in employment in almost all nations. Key changes include: increasing percentage of service sector employment while manufacturing percentage is declining, the ratio of retired people relative to active workers is increasing, low-skilled, well-paid workers in developed countries are being displaced while there is a simultaneous shortage of highly-skilled workers.

The fundamental shift in how 'the world's work gets done' is creating a global work-force, yet lack of training and access divides the work-force into those capable of performing high-paying work and those who are not. Employment growth in the next couple of decades is likely to be concentrated around 'knowledge workers'. We have seen manual workers (skilled and unskilled) reduce from 80% to less than 25% of the work-force during the last 100 years. The relative importance of professional and service people in the work-force has concomitantly increased. Building and maintaining knowledge-based competitiveness will require continual, systematic work on the productivity of knowledge and knowledge workers.

Ethnic disparities
In many parts of the world, indigenous people are seeking to address disparities in education, employment, health, economic development, and crime. A key issue in many situations is ownership of resources.

In some parts of the world, ethnic hostilities, suppressed by the cold war, are emerging as an increasing theme of armed struggle. Rapid rates of technological, political and social change are causing many to fear the future, giving rise to feelings of being left behind and of needing to re-establish fundamental principles.

Changing status of women
The status of women is changing rapidly as women strive for and acquire equality across all cultural, geographical, racial, class, religious and ethnic boundaries. Women are increasingly filling top positions in all areas of society and the economy. As the status of women improves, birth-rates typically decline and the welfare of nations improves.

Family dynamics
Family structures and patterns are changing. From the extended family common in earlier centuries, we have passed through the phase of the nuclear family typical of the industrial age. There is now considerable variety in family structures and patterns including, in particular, a considerable increase in the number of people living alone.

Crime and terrorism
Increasing crime and terrorism is a social concern around the world. Crime and terrorism are increasingly proliferating, destructive and difficult to prevent. These concerns are inter-related with a range of other social tensions, such as unemployment and ethnic disparities.

Disease and epidemics
While there has been significant progress in overcoming various diseases such as cholera, re-emergence of some diseases and the emergence of new epidemics are posing new threats. Recent outbreaks of bubonic plague in India, Ebola virus in Africa, and drug-resistant tuberculosis in the United States are causing a re-think of public health policies. Increasing mass migrations and international travel spread diseases more rapidly than in the past, and increasing urbanisation and population density accelerate and intensify this issue.The HIV pandemic illustrates our vulnerability to new diseases. Globally, more than 20 million people are infected with HIV, and health agencies expect the incidence to continue increasing until at least 2010.

Changing role of government in a knowledge society
In a knowledge society, the way government addresses outcomes in health, education and social well-being is changing. Bureaucratic management of service delivery is giving way to a strategic focus on goals, standards and monitoring, with service delivery devolved to private and community-based providers. Information technology and electronic data interchange are opening up new opportunities for enhancing this shift in focus and responsibilities. New social issues are arising - technology literacy as an equity issue, globalisation of economies and cultures, the diminished influence of the nation state, and increased emphasis on individual choice.