World Future/Fossil Power Index 2008: -33

Introducing a “World Future/Fossil Power Index”

After reading Forbes an old idea springs to mind again. I would like to see a global “future/fossil power index” being calculated. This does not have to be very sophisticated to give a sense of direction. It would look at the companies with the world’s top revenues as this indicates where we put the money to provide the services we want (or think we want). It would also indicate the lobbying capacity of the "fossil industry" vs. the "future industry" that in many cases have good reasons to slow down a transition to a low carbon economy.

First outline for the “future/fossil power index” based on Forbes top 50 list over revenues/sales

+100 for companies providing services that are reasonable sustainable and have a track record of supporting low carbon legislation/initiatives (not very many on the top 50 list)

+50 for companies that are doing more good than harm through investments and/or lobbying

0 for companies that are neutral (either with a business that is not really pushing in any direction or a company that do as much good as bad)

-50 for companies that are starting to move in a more low carbon direction and/or doing some lobbying in support of a low carbon development. But where the majority of the business is still in a high carbon area and the majority of investments still go in a direction where they lock us into a structure that making reductions more difficult

-100 for companies that still investing in high carbon solutions and either blocking or in other ways trying to stop rules and regulations that support a low carbon future.

Looking at top 50 I get the following list (based on my knowledge on the companies and rather giving a good score than a bad, so in reality we might be a little worse off, but as the rhetoric is carbon friendly in most cases I think we can get a momentum as soon as the biggest obstacles are out of the way) :

2 Companies +100

2 Companies +50

17 Companies 0

17 Companies -50

11 Companies -100

This would result in a 2008 Future/Fossil Power index of: -33

So we still have a long way to go, and I hope to follow-up this next year. Hopefully with a much better score.

It’s the Climate stupid: Arriving to Beijing with Forbes 2008 Guide to the biggest companies in the world: 2

Looking at the lists in Forbes from a climate perspective is not the happiest reading. It is obvious that some serious strategic action is needed of we are to change direction.

Let’s look at the revenues and profit for the top sectors:

Winners Sales in billion dollars
Oil & Gas 3,761
Banking 3,439
Insurance 2,085
Consumer Durables 2,019
Retailing 1,549

Winners Profit in billion dollars
Banking 398
Oil & gas 386
Insurance 150
Minerals 143
Div. financials 135

These first are the sectors we put most of our money, the second those who without much problem could help us towards a sustainable future. The question is how they are reinvesting their revenues and what they are doing with the profit…

It’s the money stupid: Arriving to Beijing with Forbes 2008 Guide to the biggest companies in the world: 1

On the plane from Tokyo to Beijing I took the time to glance through Forbes “Global 2000” 2008 special issue.

The first thing that could my interest is that the power shift seems to go faster than most people expected. Obviously institutional structures make the shift visible in everyday life as these new comers do not operate in the same way (or in the same regions) as the old ones.

Winners Gain/Loss in companies 2004 vs. 2008
China 45 (60 if Hong Kong is included)
India 21
Brazil 19
Russia 17
Hong Kong 15

Losers Gain/Loss in companies 2004 vs. 2008
US -153
Japan -57
UK -23
Germany -6
Netherlands -5

Market Value

The symbolic shift on the top spot for market value when PetroChina was listed is something that few have missed. The big ExxonMobile on number two “only” has a market value of US$ 465,506 million compared to PetroChina with US$ 546,138 million… a 15% margin or US$ 80,632 million, more than pocket money… Something that I have not seen discussed as much is China Mobile’s 4^th position, with only General Electric between it and the two oil companies. With 8,285 in profits they rank 44^th on the Global 2000 list over profits. I look forward to my meeting with them this coming week. (They replied to the survey WWF and Gartner did together and provided some very interesting answers making them a company to look out for with regards to leadership in the sustainability field).

Arne Forstenberg: Outstanding leader for the future

A good day yesterday when Arne Forstenberg was awarded “outstanding leader for the future” by JCI Sweden. Good luck to Arne and maybe his trip to India can be linked to the World Economic Forum meeting that also will take place in India in November.

Take it careful on the bike Arne…

Japan’s Government takes the global lead in low carbon ICT

Just attended a meeting in Tokyo where the World Economic Forum was partnering with the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications to convene a meeting of its IT and Telecoms Strategic & Government Affairs community in Tokyo on Wed 23^rd and Thu 24^th April. The meeting brought together senior executives from the IT and Telecoms industries and the Japanese Government.

The greatest news was that the government in Japan has taken a global lead and produced a report that, using very conservative estimations, show that Japan can reduce 38 million tonnes CO₂. (68 million in savings minus 30 million from the use of ICT). This put Japan at the lead at the exact right time. As Japan will host the G8 summit this summer there is chance that the role of ICT could become part of the international climate agenda. If ICT companies want they could take the lead and show that they can be winners as the world moves toward a low carbon economy.