Futurecast 2020 by Robert Shapiro

The subtitle of the book is “a global vision of tomorrow”, but this is really a boring book when it comes to visions. A more correct subtitle would be “a mainstream presentation of business as usual slightly more progressive, but not much, than George W Bush”… but maybe that subtitle was too long…

The reason I read to book, and many with me I guess, is that Shapiro claim to have been the advisor to many of the significant Democrats lately. My thought when I read this was that I hope Obama will keep Shapiro very far from any role where he can influence the US policy if he becomes president. Maybe the reason for Al Gore’s poor performance as a vice president was partly due to advisors like this?

It is so US centric and free market simplistic that is hard not to laugh in many places. I would not recommend this book as I think all the things Shapiro tries to do have been done much better in other book.

Two things could make a quick read of this book useful:
1. It is interesting to see the global consensus that is emerging in certain areas and where we most certainly will see discussions and changes in the years to come. Two examples:
- The very poor shape of the US economy and what will happen with the deficit, the demographic challenge [but ignore his suggestions for ways forward as they are more of the same and just create more problem further ahead].
- The need to approach the energy issue from a political perspective, not a simple supply and demand that many economists still do.

2. To understand how certain people cling to a worldview that does not work any longer, but instead of changing the worldview they want to change the world (or turn it back) so it fits with how they think it should be.

Affluenza by Oliver James

Affluenza by Oliver James is not really a book, it more like a collection of short stories and emotional outbursts (that are structured in a good way). The format is not my favorite and I think the book could have been 50 pages instead of 500 pages (but I know that people love reading about other people in a ‘gossip format’ and if this tabloid strategy make more people read this is might be worth the prize). Among the 500 pages there are enough interesting observations and concrete suggestions to make it a worthwhile reading exercise. To have concrete suggestions is very rare and something that makes the book more interesting than 95% of the books out there “only observing” the state of society.

The main argument in the book is that we now have a society, that is spreading globally, that only wants “simple satisfaction”. This global hunt for more is not only destroying the planet it is making many of us feel bad. It is not just the occasional day when people feel “down”, but something much deeper that is going on. James travels around the world to meet different people and use their stories to discuss different aspects of “Affluenza”.

The end result is not too far from Kalle Lasn and Adbusters, but James also add a little conservative touch by promoting more traditional family value.

The four root causes Oliver identifies are however structural and something that I think will be increasingly discussed the coming years.

1. Companies only looking at the share price
2. Privatization of public utilities
3. The belief that business need as little regulation as possible and that the rich don’t need to pay tax
4. The conviction that consumption and market forces can meet human needs of almost every kind.

To highlight these as (at least possible) fundamental challenges to our wellbeing, and at the same time also give concrete suggestions forward, is something more authors should try.

Virgin Virtual, a make or Break for Richard Branson engagement with climate change

Just read the new edition of Richard Branson’s “Screw it, let’s do it” with (as written on the cover) "new chapters on environmentally friendly business". The new chapters are actually quite interesting, but beside the fact that Branson state that climate change is real and that we need to do something about it, few innovative and concrete ways forward are suggested. The big money that Branson have put in so far (or promised to put in) is almost exclusively more of same, but a little better.

Branson seem to think very linear in the field of solutions to natural resources, climate change and the environment. His first reaction was to build more refineries when oil prices started to climb. Then he got information about climate change and started to think about bio fuels (that ended with the $3bn pledge). Realizing that we have bigger challenges than this he initiated a price for the person who could figure out a way to suck a lot of CO2 out of the atmosphere.

These things are not necessarily bad, they are much better than 90% of what CEOs are doing out there, but they are also a sign of the linear thinking that the reactive parts of the industry are spending their time on (one of the most sad and destructive cases is probably Vattenfall and their “all-eggs-in-one-basket-approach” to coal power pollution by dreaming of a CCS solution that will solve all the world’s problems). I’m sure Branson is more progressive than Josefsson from Vattenfall, but he must do something a bit more innovative than promoting incremental improvements that are wiped out by an increased consumption.

Actually most of Branson’s business ideas over the decades are not very innovative, he is doing what others have done, but a little better. Nothing wrong with that, but Branson seem to aim higher. The one thing that is really innovative is Virgin Galactic and putting people in space. This might not be the most resource friendly activity, but it is new and I think Branson must find something similar (but sustainable) to be really engaged.

With Branson’s portfolio (mobile communication, trains and airplanes) it is one really obvious way forward that would put Branson in the history book and make a significant contribution to climate change, a launch of “Virgin Virtual”.

By creating Virgin Virtual Branson would have a portfolio that covers enough parts of a sustainable transport system, i.e. trains, mobile communication, airplanes and virtual meetings in order to be credible.

Establishing Virgin Virtual in the world’s largest and fastest growing metropolises would allow a new generation of entrepreneurs to collaborate in new ways and it would help governments to collaborate more, not just negotiate. The technology already exist but needs to move from exclusive small scale systems like the systems HP and Cisco have today, to a system that can benefit from an economy of scale and ensure that a critical mass is created so a virtual meeting can be the default option for people that fly a lot today in their work.

By setting up Virgin virtual he could also be the first one how created a “frequent meeting” bonus system that people who use these new sustainable innovations could enjoy. Ensuring that people and companies that take the lead towards a low carbon society are rewarded and acknowledged would be one important part that could open up for other ideas.

Virgin Virtual would be the first global network of high quality virtual meeting facilities, think video conferencing but full wall high-resolutions quality that make you feel as if you are in the same room as the other person. This could dramatically reduce the need for business flight (leaving more room for holiday trips and important flights). It would also be an important contribution to a shift in thinking from products and incremental improvements to services and transformative change.

Virgin Virtual, a make or Break for Richard Branson engagement with climate change

Just read the new edition of Richard Branson’s “Screw it, let’s do it” with (as written on the cover) "new chapters on environmentally friendly business". The new chapters are actually quite interesting, but beside the fact that Branson state that climate change is real and that we need to do something about it, few innovative and concrete ways forward are suggested. The big money that Branson have put in so far (or promised to put in) is almost exclusively more of same, but a little better.

Branson seem to think very linear in the field of solutions to natural resources, climate change and the environment. His first reaction was to build more refineries when oil prices started to climb. Then he got information about climate change and started to think about bio fuels (that ended with the $3bn pledge). Realizing that we have bigger challenges than this he initiated a price for the person who could figure out a way to suck a lot of CO2 out of the atmosphere.

These things are not necessarily bad, they are much better than 90% of what CEOs are doing out there, but they are also a sign of the linear thinking that the reactive parts of the industry are spending their time on (one of the most sad and destructive cases is probably Vattenfall and their “all-eggs-in-one-basket-approach” to coal power pollution by dreaming of a CCS solution that will solve all the world’s problems). I’m sure Branson is more progressive than Josefsson from Vattenfall, but he must do something a bit more innovative than promoting incremental improvements that are wiped out by an increased consumption.

Actually most of Branson’s business ideas over the decades are not very innovative, he is doing what others have done, but a little better. Nothing wrong with that, but Branson seem to aim higher. The one thing that is really innovative is Virgin Galactic and putting people in space. This might not be the most resource friendly activity, but it is new and I think Branson must find something similar (but sustainable) to be really engaged.

With Branson’s portfolio (mobile communication, trains and airplanes) it is one really obvious way forward that would put Branson in the history book and make a significant contribution to climate change, a launch of “Virgin Virtual”.

By creating Virgin Virtual Branson would have a portfolio that covers enough parts of a sustainable transport system, i.e. trains, mobile communication, airplanes and virtual meetings in order to be credible.

Establishing Virgin Virtual in the world’s largest and fastest growing metropolises would allow a new generation of entrepreneurs to collaborate in new ways and it would help governments to collaborate more, not just negotiate. The technology already exist but needs to move from exclusive small scale systems like the systems HP and Cisco have today, to a system that can benefit from an economy of scale and ensure that a critical mass is created so a virtual meeting can be the default option for people that fly a lot today in their work.

By setting up Virgin virtual he could also be the first one how created a “frequent meeting” bonus system that people who use these new sustainable innovations could enjoy. Ensuring that people and companies that take the lead towards a low carbon society are rewarded and acknowledged would be one important part that could open up for other ideas.

Virgin Virtual would be the first global network of high quality virtual meeting facilities, think video conferencing but full wall high-resolutions quality that make you feel as if you are in the same room as the other person. This could dramatically reduce the need for business flight (leaving more room for holiday trips and important flights). It would also be an important contribution to a shift in thinking from products and incremental improvements to services and transformative change.

The WEEE man and a global campaign

The WEEE man is a brilliant communication tool that is standing in the Eden Project. It is made from electrical and electronic waste, such as washing machines, TVs, microwaves, vacuum cleaners and mobile phones. It represents the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) the average British person throws away in their lifetime – over 3 tonnes per person.

69% of Household WEEE arising by weight in the UK comes from Large Household Appliances – cookers, washing machines etc. Therefore the predominant weight of WEEE in the WEEE Man is large household appliances. Consumer Equipment (i.e. Hi Fi ) accounts for 13%, 8% Small Household appliances such as vacuum cleaners, 7% IT & telecommunications (mobile phones) and so on.

The statistics is interesting in a time where IT get a lot of criticism for the e-waste. It is obviously a serious issue, especially as a lot of chemicals and rare metals are used, still collaborations between those producing large household appliances and consumer electronics would be a very good way forward looking at the numbers..

Why not have one WEEE man in every major city then it would be easy to see what countries that are the most wasteful? Each year the WEEE man could be “updated” depending on the waste trends in the different countries. Maybe even flags could be attached to the WEEE man to indicate where the waste ends up in order for people in OECD to see where their waste often ends up.

Important would be to indicate how much that are being recycled and how much that is sent to poor countries and/or to landfills. IT could help clean up the dirty side of IT...